by Brandon Sudeyko (@intheoradio)
The ITO Crew put their collective heads together and came together with the Eastern Conference playoff preview.
Belleville Bulls v Mississauga Steelheads
The Belleville Bulls enter the OHL post-season on a tear, winning fifteen of their last nineteen games, and are firing on all cylinders as they prepare for the eighth-seeded Mississauga Steelheads. While many see the Bulls as being led by star netminder Malcolm Subban, this team has far more than superior goaltending in this matchup. The Bulls simply have far too many dangerous offensive threats for the Steelheads to deal with, and are a better club at every position. The Bulls have a solid group of defenders, led by Malcolm’s draft-eligible brother, Jordan Subban, along with veterans such as Jake Cardwell and Stephen Silas, who will make scoring difficult for a Mississauga group who have had trouble scoring all season long. Belleville filled any potential offensive holes at this year’s deadline, acquiring Alan Quine and Tyler Graovac from division rivals, bringing their 61 combined goals this season to a club that already had weapons such as Brendan Gaunce and Daniil Zharkov. Those four players accounted for 119 goals this season, while Mississauga scored just 179 total goals this year.
If the Steelheads are to find a way to pull off the upset, their top players need to step forward and lead the team, and they will need their goaltending to outduel one of the best in the league for a seven-game series. Spencer Martin appears as though he’ll be the go-to guy for Mississauga, with veteran Tyson Teichmann ready to step in between the pipes if called upon. For Martin to step up to Subban’s level, he will need to count on his defensive veterans, especially Maple Leafs 1st round pick Stuart Percy and Dylan DeMelo. The Steelheads are not without offensive threats in their own right, as Dylan Smoskowitz fired 33 goals this season, while Riley Brace tied the team’s franchise record for points in the final game of the season. Beyond those two, Kristoff Kontos was the only other Steelhead forward to register more than twelve goals, and the team needs to find secondary scoring to challenge the Bulls.
With 18 wins and 36 points separating these two clubs during the regular season, I’m not sure if there’s a scenario that can play out where Mississauga will come out on top in this series. For the past two months, these two clubs have been traveling in completely opposite directions, as the Belleville Bulls went on an impressive 15-2-2-0 run over the final nineteen games of the season, securing not only the East Division title, but the top seed in the Conference, while the Mississauga Steelheads flat-lined, falling down the standings, and snapping a ten-game losing streak in the final game of the season to cling to the final playoff spot. While some see the potential for the Steelheads to put up a fight, as they won two of their four meetings against Belleville this season, the Bulls won the two meetings in 2013 without allowing a single Steelheads goal. I see this as the Conference’s worst offense against the Conference’s best defence and goaltending.
Prediction is Belleville in four.
Barrie Colts v Kingston Frontenacs
The Barrie Colts have been at or near the top of the OHL's Eastern Conference throughout the season. They finished with a record of 44-20-2-2, good for 92 points, just 4 shy of first place, Belleville. At home, they had the best record in the OHL at 27-5-1-1, two points better than the London Knights. They were 17-15-1-1 on the road. The Colts finished the season with the very best powerplay in the OHL, scoring on 25.3% of their chances. Their penalty killing was ranked 13th in the OHL, killing off 77.4% of penalties against. They averaged 13.1 penalty minutes a game, which was 15th in the OHL.
Kingston went through a horrible 12 game losing streak in January and February, which the coaches believe will only help them going forward. Kingston's record was 27-35-3-3. At K-Rock Centre in Kingston, they were a respectable 17-13-1-3, actually gaining more points than the Colts. On the road, the Fronts limped to a 10-22-2-0 record (worst in the Eastern Conference). Kingston's specialty teams have been awful this season. They rank last on the powerplay (15.8%), and last killing penalties (72.7%). They averaged 13.7 penalty minutes a game, which was 13th in the OHL.
The Colts won 3 and lost 1 against Kingston this season, but the Fronts have been in every game except for one. Way back on September 21st Kingston beat the Colts 3-1 at K-Rock Centre. They were full value for the win, as they outshot the Colts 37-28. Mike Morrison beat Mathias Niederberger. Defenseman, Mike Moffat had a goal and 2 assists for the Fronts, and Mark Scheifele spoiled Morrison's shut out bid with less than 6 mins left in the game. Kingston had 2 powerplay goals in this game. On December 8th, in Barrie, backup goalie, Colin Furlong gave up 3 first period goals, and the Colts big guns broke out in a 6-2 win. Andreas Athanasiou, Schiefele, and Ryan O'Connor all had 3 points, and Barrie scored 2 powerplay goals. On February 1st, a late goal by Anthony Camara sent the game to overtime, which solved nothing in a 2-2 game. Camara scored the only goal in the shootout, and Alex Fotinos was outstanding in a 3-2 win in Kingston. Colin Furlong played well for Kingston, as well. Last Thursday, an empty net goal by Mark Scheifele broke up a one goal game, to give the Colts a hard fought 4-2 win in Barrie. Each team scored on the PP in this one.
On paper, this appears as though it will be a quick series. Barrie has the advantage in every major category. In goal, overager, Mathias Niederberger has an impressive 35-12-2-1 record, a 0.933 save percentage, and a 2.34 goals against average. Mike Morrison is also an overager. He has a 24-25-2-1 record, a 0.896 save percentage, and a 3.62 goals against average. Clearly the Colts have an advantage in this key category.
On defense, the Colts have way more OHL experience. Overager, Ryan O'Connor has played in 340 games. Overager, Ryan Hanes, is the most experienced Front, with 306 games played. He is the only Fronts' defenseman to have played in the playoffs, apart from Mike Moffat's 2 games with the Knights. That's where the similarities end. Kingston relies on 3 rookies to play major minutes on defense. Miko Vainonen is Kingston's only NHL drafted player (Nsh 2012), and has been arguably their best defenseman on the season. It's no coincidence that Kingston's long losing streak coincided with his 10 game suspension. Roland McKeown plays way beyond his 16 years, and fellow 16 year old, Dylan DiPerna plays a regular shift. Aaron Ekblad is the only 16 year old to play regularly on the Colts' defense, and since he has an extra OHL year (rookie of the year, no less) under his belt, he is not a rookie. The advantage has to go to the Colts on defense, as well.
The Colts have a clear advantage at forward, as well. The Colts are bigger and stronger, and use their size to their advantage. They have 5 forwards with 24 or more goals, lead by Schiefele with 39 in 45 games, and Camara with 36 in 50 games. Andreas Athanasiou has had a break out year with Barrie, scoring 29 goals after being acquired from the Knights, after being drafted by the Red Wings in the 4th round. Mitchell Theoret was a nice pick up from the Ice Dogs mid season, as he has 25 goals, and has 36 playoff games to his credit with the Dogs. Kingston's offensive production has been spread out, as well. They had five 20 goal scorers. Import, Henri Ikonen led the team with 51 points. Last year's leading scorer, Darcy Greenaway finished second with 48 points, and had a team high 24 goals. Spencer Watson, and Sam Bennett had impressive rookie years, finishing 4th and 6th in team scoring. Highly regarded NHL draft eligible, Ryan Kujawinski led the Fronts with 31 assists.
Perhaps the most lopsided advantage that the Colts have, on paper, is in playoff experience. Kingston has a total of 0 players who have ever played an OHL playoff game in a Frontenac uniform. No one is left from the team that lost to the Oshawa Generals in 5 games in the 2011 1st Round. Hanes has the most playoff experience, having played in 27 games over 2 years with the 67s, and 2 years with the Wolves. Captain Cody Alcock played in 17 games with the Bulls in the 09 playoffs. Sam Schutt played in 12 playoff games over two seasons in Sudbury. Luke Hietkamp played in 2 games with the Petes in 2010, and as mentioned Moffat played in 2 games with the Knights. Sam Povorozniouk played one game for the Spirit last year, in the playoffs.
From the Frontenacs point of view, it's a very good thing that the games aren't played on paper, as the Colts have a clear advantage in every area, except perhaps, for youthful exuberance. You can bet that the Kingston coaching staff is focusing on how well the Fronts have battled the Colts this year, and the fact that they will be considered huge underdogs in this series, and that they have nothing to lose, and everything to gain.
Prediction is Barrie in 6.
Oshawa Generals v Niagara IceDogs
The Oshawa Generals and Niagara Icedogs meet up in the OHL playoffs for the third straight season, continuing a rivalry that has really grown over the past few seasons, and fueled of course, when Lucas Lessio declined the opportunity to play in Niagara, moving on to a successful OHL career in Oshawa. In 2011 and 2012, it was the Icedogs who moved on, eliminating the Generals in back-to-back years, something Oshawa players haven’t forgotten. As such, this is expected to be a physically demanding series between the two teams, though it may finish with a different outcome.
For the Oshawa Generals, the game plan should be a simple one, as they appear, at least on paper, to have the advantage in all three positions this season. In goal, the Icedogs have struggled this season to replace star goaltender Mark Visentin, and veteran backup Chris Festerini was given the net in his fifth OHL season. Oshawa, meanwhile, has relied heavily on second-year tendy Daniel Altshuller, who played more games and minutes than any other goalie in the league this season, helping the Gens set a franchise record for lowest total goals against. Niagara’s ability to compete with Oshawa defensively may have expired with the departure of Dougie Hamilton to the NHL’s Boston Bruins. The Icedogs haven’t found anyone to adequately fill the large hole left on their blue line, while the Generals have a veteran crew of rearguards who have helped Altshuller look brilliant at times this season. Oshawa brings in two overage-defensemen, Geoffrey Schemitsch and Matt Petgrave, who both have OHL Championship experience with the Owen Sound Attack in 2011, as well as Flyers prospect Colin Suellentrop patrolling their own zone, which will make things tough on Niagara’s forwards.
While Oshawa boasts a plethora of offensive weapons, the Icedogs stand up well to the Generals on offense, as Niagara brings in proven NHL prospects such as Islanders first-round pick Ryan Strome and Stars prospect Brett Ritchie, who teamed up well together on Team Canada over the holidays. Beyond those two, however, the Icedogs will need more from secondary scorers such as Steven Shipley and Carter Verhaegae to hold up against the Generals. Oshawa comes into the playoffs led by captain Boone Jenner and his 45 goals, who easily would have scored fifty had he not missed twelve games. Overager Scott Sabourin became a force, scoring 30 goals, while NHL first-round picks Scott Laughton and Tyler Biggs both netted over twenty. Phoenix Coyotes prospect Lucas Lessio would have been up around 30 goals with a full-season himself, scoring 19 in 35 games after missing two months due to injury. If the Generals can stay healthy, they should have more than enough weapons to push past the Icedogs.
Prediction is Oshawa in six.
Brampton Battalion v Sudbury Wolves
Of all the playoff matchups in the Eastern Conference, this of course, the 4-5 match, should be the most intriguing of the bunch. In fact, just a look up and down the rosters show how close these teams actually are, and could be decided on a coin-flip over the next two weeks. These teams battled each other a few times down the stretch, as they fought for position and home advantage, a race won by Brampton, as they won the last three meetings between the two teams. In goal, this series presents an interesting matchup, as Sudbury acquired Franky Palazzese from Kitchener at the deadline for a potential playoff run, while the Battalion can counter with Matej Machovsky, who brings valuable experience back from last season. Brampton also brings more experience from the defense, with a number of key guys from last year’s run who have grown a year stronger. Dylan Blujus and Zach Bell take the majority of the minutes, but, as is the norm when talking about Stan Butler-coached teams, the entire team commits to protecting the net. For the Wolves, they rely heavily on Charlie Dodero after dealing Frank Corrado at the deadline, but have some good young d-men who can play big minutes, including Evan de Haan and Jeff Corbett.
Sudbury sent some key offensive players away in trades this year, but hold onto a formidable top line of Matthew Campagna, Nate Pancel, and Nick Baptiste, each of whom scored at least twenty goals this season. Michael Kantor also scored twenty for the Wolves, but they will still need more to counter Brampton’s defense-first strategy. The Battalion aren’t without scorers themselves, and Barclay Goodrow led the way with 38 tallies. Francis Menard, Blake Clarke, and Matt MacLeod all nearly struck the twenty goal mark, each of them scoring 19 goals, and Brandon Robinson also chips in offensively, scoring seventeen.
Predicting the outcome of this series is about as tricky as hitting a housefly with a tranquilizer, but here goes. This series could come down to how Palazzese performs for Sudbury. If there is an offensive edge, it may go Brampton’s way with more weapons to choose from, but if Palazzese can shut the door, he will give his Wolves an opportunity to break-through in the series.
Prediction is Brampton in six.